1.2. The socio-ecology of northern Quebec under climate change

1.2. The socio-ecology of northern Quebec under climate change

This synthesis focuses on two culturally- and politically-defined landscapes of Northern Quebec, the Cree or Eeyouch region of Eeyou Istchee and the Inuit or Nunavimmiut region of Nunavik. The Eeyouch traditional territory of Eeyou Istchee, which means people’s land, extends over 400,000 km2 and is home to over 19,000 Eeyouch living in 11 communities and using over three hundred family traplines [1]. An Eeyouch tallyman is responsible for the stewardship of each trapline, including the preservation and management of the trapline and its natural and wildlife resources [1]. The Nunavimmiut territory of Nunavik, which means the place where we live, extends over 560,000 km2 and is home to approximately 11,800 Nunavimmiut [2] living in 15 villages along the Ungava Bay, Hudson’s Strait, and Hudson’s Bay coasts [3]. The Eeyouch and Nunavimmiut of northern Quebec live under a mixed economy that includes a wage-based economy (mainly in public administration, service, and natural resource sectors) as well as a traditional subsistence economy focused on diverse wildlife assemblages – including plants and animals; terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species; boreal, subarctic, and arctic assemblages.

1.2.1. Environment

Northern Québec’s western limit is defined by the coastlines of James Bay and Hudson Bay, its northern limit by coastlines of Hudson Strait and Ungava Bay, and its eastern edge by its border with Labrador, along high elevation ridge that includes the Torngat Mountains (Figure 1). Terrestrial vegetation cover of Northern Québec is tundra throughout most of Nunavik, including herbaceous tundra close to Hudson Strait and shrub tundra south of that (Figure 1). The treeline is situated inland from Umiujaq on the Hudson Bay coast, then angles north-east roughly aligned with the Rivière aux Feuille, reaching close to Tasiujaq on the Ungava Coast, then following around the southern edge of Ungava Bay (inland from the coast) to south-east of Kangiqsualujjuaq. Inland portions of southern Nunavik are covered by a forest tundra transition zone. The most northerly portions of Eeyou Istchee includes patches of tundra the most southerly portions includes mixed forests and deciduous stands, but most of Eeyou Istchee is covered by one of two types of conifer forest: the black spruce lichen forest in the north and the black spruce moss forest in the south (Figure 1).

As described in [1], Eeyou Istchee’s topography is characterized by a relatively flat relief that comprises three geomorphological regions; a coastal plain to the west, a plateau punctuated by hills, and the Otish Mountains in the eastern part of the territory. Geologically, most of Eeyou Istchee is situated in the Superior Province, known to be rich in precious (gold and silver) and common (copper, zinc, and nickel) metals. Six natural ecosystems designated within Eeyou Istchee include the Abitibi Lowlands (Matagami), James Bay Lowlands (Waskaganish, Eastmain), Mistassini Highlands (Mistissini, Nemaska), La Grande River Hills (Wemindji, Chisasibi, Whapmagoostui); Nord-du-Quebec Central Plateau (north-east); and Central Laurentides (south-east). Climatically, average annual temperature ranges from -6 °C at the northern limit of Eeyou Istchee to -3 °C at the southern limit. Most of the territory (51-58°N) is classified as a subpolar continental climate, while parts of Eeyou Istchee south of 51°N are classified as a cold, humid continental climate. . Lakes, rivers, and reservoirs are important features within Eeyou Istchee. These hydrological features occur within seven major drainage basins in the region; watersheds within the Rupert Bay, James Bay and Hudson Bay drainages generally flow from east to west (Figure 2). Eeyou Istchee also comprises a diversity of wetlands, including peatlands (fen and forested bogs), marshes, swamps, and shallow water ecosystems. Although limited in distribution, mixedwood stands in the south are significant to Cree culture as their variation of softwood and hardwood create different habitat conditions for many different species, are sources of materials and medicine, and are used as landmarks by the Cree tallymen. Vegetation age in Eeyou Istchee ranges from < 20 years old to > 80 years old, with southern forests generally younger due to commercial tree cutting and reforestation, and northern non-commercial forests generally older. However, forest fires are a major natural disturbance across Eeyou Istchee, which maintains age and stand composition diversity across the territory.

As described in [5], Nunavik has a varied landscape with mountain ranges and valleys, eskers, cirques, and complex drainage patterns. Geologically, Nunavik contains some of the planet’s oldest bedrock, which has been worn for over two billion years by a succession of glaciation cycles, tectonic movement, volcanic activity and erosion. The Superior Province covers western Nunavik, the Rae Province covers eastern Nunavik, the Labrador Fossa bisects these two provinces as a long narrow strip running from south-east Nunavik to along the western side of Ungava Bay, and the Ungava Fossa is located close to Hudson Strait in northwestern Nunavik. Continuous permafrost occurs across most of northwestern Nunavik, with a belt of extensive discontinuous permafrost around treeline, and sporadic discontinuous permafrost under the forest tundra transition zone.

1.2.2. Natural resources

Northern Quebec is rich in natural resources, including abundant wildlife, major river systems, rich mineral deposits, and dense boreal forest cover. Northern Quebec has therefore long been viewed as a resource provider capable of supplying materials, energy and economic benefits both within and beyond the region, including but not limited to southern Quebec. Commercial exploitation of natural resources in Quebec commenced with the European fur trade, which began in the mid-1600’s and continued until at least the mid-1900s as a dominant driver of local harvest activities, economy, and wildlife populations (Figure 3A). Mining in northern Quebec, focused initially in the 1920's on gold deposits near Val D'Or and in the 1950's on iron deposits around Schefferville, has since expanded to include the Raglan and Nunavik Nickel mines near Kangiqsujuaq, the Éléonore gold mine near Wemindji, the Renard diamond mine north of Mistissini, and several projected lithium and rare earth mines (Figure 3B). Hydroelectric development of the region, focused on rivers flowing east to west into James Bay commenced with the James Bay Project of the 1970’s. At present Hydro-Québec operates 11 generating stations within Eeyou Istchee, including the 2012 Rupert River Diversion near Nemaska redirected more than 70 per cent of the natural flow of the Rupert River north through Eastmain 1-A and eventually into La Grande (Figure 3C). Eeyou Istchee also has an active forestry sector south of 51 ^oN (the northern limit of commercial forestry in Quebec) around the communities of Waswanipi, Oujé-Bougoumou, and Mistissini, under the provisions of the Adapted Forestry Regime (Figure 3D). The cumulative development associated with hydro, mining, and forestry sectors has created an important south to north gradient in road density and territory accessibility; southern inland Eeyou Istchee has the most roads and road accessible traplines, whereas most coastal traplines in Eeyou Istchee and essentially all of Nunavik are not accessible by road. Ten of eleven Eeyou Istchee communities are road accessible, whereas all 15 Nunavik communities are accessible only by air.

1.2.3. Governance

In November 1975, prompted by hydro-electric development envisioned by the James Bay Project, the Cree of James Bay, the Inuit of Nunavik, and the governments of Canada and Quebec signed the James Bay and Northern Quebec Agreement (JBNQA). The JBNQA created a new legal and eventually constitutional framework defining local self-government, land management, and protection of traditional ways of life in northern Quebec. Section 24 of the JBNQA established a hunting, trapping and fishing regime for Cree and Inuit (and later Naskapi) lands, recognizing i) traplines and tallyman authority, ii) native harvest rights on Category I, II & III lands, and iii) the principle of priority of Native harvesting. A co-management committee composed of Native and government members, referred to as the Hunting, Fishing and Trapping Coordinating Committee, reviews, manages, supervises, and regulates the regime.

The Cree Nation Government (CNG) was formed in 1978, under the name Cree Regional Authority (CRA), to serve as the administrative authority of the Cree Nation of Eeyou Istchee under the JBNQA. Three years later, the Cree Trappers’ Association (CTA) was incorporated as a not-for-profit organization in accordance with the agreement. The Cree Board of Health and Social Services of James Bay (CBHSSJB), also founded in 1978, is responsible for the administration of health and social services for all persons residing permanently or temporarily in Region 18, the administrative region of the Ministry of Health and Social Services of Quebec corresponding to the Cree territory of James Bay. CBHSSJB’s mandate is defined in Chapter S-5—An Act respecting health services and social services for Cree Native persons, while their vision - individuals, families and communities strive to achieve Miyupimaatisiiun reflective of Nishiiyuu - emphasizes the Cree concepts of Miyupimaatisiiun, meaning not only physical health but also psychological, social, and political well-being within the context of land and identity and Nishiiyuu referring to the traditional ways of the Eeyouch.

Makivik was created in 1978 as the political organization representing the Inuit of Nunavik, mandated to protect the rights, interests and financial compensation provided by the JBNQA. The Kativik Regional Government (KRG) was also created in 1978 to deliver public services to Nunavimmiut by the Act respecting Northern Villages and the Kativik Regional Government (Kativik Act). The Nunavik Regional Board of Health and Social Services (NRBHSS) was created in 1995 by virtue of the Act respecting health services and social services with a principal mandate to organize health and social service programs across the 14 villages of Nunavik. Its overall mission is to adapt the health and social service programs to the population's needs and to the region's realities.

In 2002, Quebec Premier Bernard Landry & Cree Grand Chief Ted Moses signed the 50-year Agreement Concerning a New Relationship Between the Gouvernement du Québec and the Cree of Québec, commonly called the Paix des Braves Agreement. The agreement enhanced Cree involvement in natural resource industries, including revenue sharing and joint management of hydroelectricity, mining, and forestry (under the terms of the Adapted Foresty Regime).

In 2006, the Nunavik Inuit Land Claims Agreement (NILCA) was signed by Makivik Corporation and the Governments of Canada. The NILCA addresses the use, management and ownership of Nunavut land and resources in James Bay, Hudson Bay, Hudson Strait and Ungava Bay, as well as a portion of northern Labrador and an offshore area adjacent to Labrador. NILCA established the Nunavik Marine Region Wildlife Board (NMRWB) as the main instrument of wildlife management in the Nunavik Marine Region. The NMRWB aims to consider both western science and traditional Inuit knowledge, or Inuit Qaujimajatuqangit (IQ) when making wildlife management decisions. NILCA also established the Regional Nunavimmi Umajulivijiit Katujiqatigininga (RNUK), a regional association of hunters, fishermen and trappers that is made up of representatives from each community’s Local Nunavimmi Umajulivijiit Katujiqatigininga (LNUK). This group is responsible for all wildlife matters associated with the NMR.

In 2011, the Eeyou Marine Region Land Claims Agreement (EMRLCA) was signed by the Cree of Eeyou Istchee and the Governments of Canada and Nunavut. This agreement focuses on the Eeyou Marine Region (EMR), which is the offshore of James Bay that coastal Cree have traditionally occupied and used. This agreement covers an area of approximately 61,270 km2 off the shore of eastern James Bay and southeastern Hudson Bay, and settles land and resource rights for the Crees, Canada and Nunavut, over the islands and marine waters in this area. The EMRLCA establishes the Eeyou Marine Region Wildlife Board (EMRWB) as the organization responsible for wildlife management, regulation and research in the Eeyou Marine Region.

The Québec government has multiple ministries with mandates that intersect with local food systems in northern Quebec. The Ministère de la Santé et des Services sociaux (MSSS) seeks to maintain, improve and restore the health and well-being of the Quebec population by providing access to a range of integrated, quality health and social services, thereby contributing to the social and economic development of Quebec. The Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs (MFFP) promotes knowledge acquisition and ensures the development and optimal use of forestry, wildlife and parks in Québec from a sustainable development perspective, for the benefit of the entire population. The Ministère de l’Environnement et de la Lutte contre les changements climatiques (MELCC) contributes to the sustainable development of Québec by playing a key role in the fight against climate change, the protection of the environment and the conservation of biodiversity, for the benefit of current and future generations. The Ministère de l'Énergie et des Ressources naturelles (MERN) manages and supports the development of land, energy and mineral resources in Québec, with a view to achieving sustainable development. The Societe du Plan Nord (SPN) has a mission to contribute, in collaboration with the representatives of the regions and the aboriginal nations concerned, as well as the private sector, to the integrated and coherent development of the area covered by the Plan Nord, in keeping with the principle of sustainable development and in accordance with the policy directions defined by the Government in relation to the Plan Nord. Specific mandates of SPN include i) coordinating infrastructure projects, ii) assisting and supporting local and aboriginal communities in their community and socio-economic development projects, iii) carrying out or contributing to research and development activities as well as activities to acquire knowledge of the area, and iv) contributing to setting up mechanisms to allow 50% of the area covered by the Plan Nord to be used, by 2035, for purposes other than industrial purposes, for the protection of the environment and for the preservation of biodiversity. Hydro-Québec is a public utility that manages the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity in the Canadian province of Quebec, as well as the export of power to portions of the Northeast United States. The Niskamoon Corporation enables the implementation of the Cree/Hydro-Québec Agreements by developing projects in collaboration with Cree land users and other beneficiaries to alleviate the impacts of hydroelectric development in Eeyou Istchee.

1.2.4. Health and well-being

Eeyouch living in Eeyou Istchee conceptualize health as Miyupimaatisium, loosely translated as being alive well, encompassing all aspects of life; physical wellness, spiritual health, the health and wellness of community and the land [6, 7, 8]. Most Eeyouch speak Cree in the home and are able to carry a conversation in Cree [9]. The language spoken in Eeyou Istchee is often referred to as Eastern James Bay Cree. CNG recognizes two major dialects spoken within the region: a northern dialect spoken in the northern and coastal communities (Whapmagoostui, Chisasibi, Wemindji, Eastmain and Waskaganish) and a southern dialect spoken inland and in the more southerly communities (Nemaska, Waswanipi, Oujé-Bougoumou, Mistissini). Within Eeyou Istchee, local food is referred to as Iiyimiichim, meaning our food. Wages are the main source of income in most Eeyou Istchee households, with seasonal or intermittent employment being common, but unemployment rate is higher in coastal communities than in inland ones. The rate of mental disorders in Eeyou Istchee is comparable to elsewhere in Quebec and most residents had a positive perception of their mental health and reported being happy and satisfied with life [10]. The main reported source of stress for women is family care and responsibilities, while men reported being stressed by employment, schooling or income security issues [10]. A majority of Cree say that spiritual values play an important role in their lives, with some reporting a religious affiliation and some drawing strength from traditional beliefs [9]. Around a quarter of the Eeyou Istchee adult population experienced some form of food insecurity concentrated among members of large households and adults with lower educational level [11]. There are high rates of obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic inflammation, high blood pressure, and imbalances in blood fats across Eeyou Istchee. In some Eeyou Istchee communities, fully one third of the adult population has been diagnosed with type 2 or gestational diabetes and more remain undiagnosed [7]. Almost everyone in Eeyou Istchee eats local foods at least occasionally [12], which might contribute to high blood levels of Omega-3 fats and provide some protective effect against heart disease. Higher intake of local food is associated with lower consumption of less nutritious ultra-processed food [12]. Among women in Eeyou Istchee, local food intake increases with age, hunting, and receiving Income Security, while among men local food intake increases with age and speaking only Cree at home [12]. Nevertheless, Cree of Eeyou Istchee, especially youth and young adults eat primarily store-bought foods, which tend to include enough meat, but to be low in vegetables/fruits, grains, and milk products, and high in fats and sugar [12]. Almost everyone is getting enough iron and zinc (found in meat and fish), but intakes of magnesium, vitamin D, calcium, and some other vitamins are low. Thyroid disease and osteoporosis were no more common in Eeyou Istchee than elsewhere in Canada [13]. The population of Eeyou Istchee is primarily young (94% are under 65). Life expectancy of Eeyou Istchee residents is 77 years, which is two years less than the Quebec average [14].

The Nunavimmiut of Nunavik refer to local food as niqituinnaq, meaning real or natural food, and associate its consumption with Inummariit or Inumarittut, which means to eat, work, talk or even walk in the manner of a real Inuk [15]. In Nunavik, children and young adults represent a high proportion of the population. About half of Nunavimmiut speaks almost exclusively Inuktitut at home and a majority speaks and read Inuktitut without difficulty or fairly well. In a year, most adult Nunavimmiut participate in paid work (including self-employment), but almost half of Nunavimmiut reported an annual income below $20,000 and not having enough money to meet their needs [16]. Most Nunavimmiut agree with the importance of cultural identity and are satisfied with their knowledge and skills of cultural and traditional activities. Spirituality and spiritual values are also an important part of life for most Nunavimmiut. A majority of Nunavimmiut go out on the land at least occasionally to hunt, fish, pick berries, or harvest seafood. Being on the land, including harvesting nutritious foods, interacting positively with other families and generations, and being physically active, is considered important for most Nunavimmiut [17]. Inuit health research has a long, colonial, objectifying, but recently evolving history in Nunavik [18]. Between 1992 and 2004, there was a slight decrease in the contribution of country food to the adult diet and store-bought foods contributed more to the diet of younger people. On average, fish, seafood, and caribou are consumed 2-3 times per week, while waterfowl and marine mammals are consumed once per week. Most households made use of community freezers to access country foods. For more than half of Nunavimmiut, dietary intakes of protein and most vitamins are acceptable, but for some vitamins and minerals, such as vitamins A, C and D, calcium and dietary fibre, intakes are low among the adult population, which reflects the low consumption of milk products, fruits and vegetables and whole-grain cereal products in Nunavik. The consumption of sweet beverages increased and represents a significant source of carbohydrates, particularly among young people. The consumption of marine country food provides high amounts of omega-3 fatty acids. For several households, food insecurity is an issue and 25% of people report having lacked food in the last month [19]. The majority of Nunavimmiut are sedentary and do not achieve the recommended level of physical activity during their free time. Rates of obesity have increased between 1992 and 2004, particularly among men and young adults, and is higher among women and people aged 50-74. The majority of adults in Nunavik have a weight surplus [20]. The prevalence of high blood pressure has increased between 1992 (6.0%) and 2004 (11.9%), while blood lipid profiles remained satisfactory. Nunavimmiut seem to be well-protected against atherosclerosis, but increases in the rates of smoking, glucose intolerance, and obesity might represent a probable increase in cardiovascular risk factors in the future [21].

In Eeyou Istchee, traditional food contributes around 10% of energy and fat, 18% of iron and 15% of vitamin D in an adult diet [22], while in Nunavik, country food represents about 40% of all meat and fish consumed, and 16% of all vegetables, berries and fruit consumed [23]. Given traditional or country food continue to be an important source of dietary energy, protein, and micronutrients for people of Eeyou Istchee and Nunavik, and that its consumption has been associated with lower health risks and higher food security, impacts of climate change on Indigenous local food systems of northern Quebec is a space where structural efforts in adaptation are being made.

1.2.5. Social and economic change

Livelihoods and lifeways in Nunavik and Eeyou Istchee, and the contemporary social organization of communities and regions in northern Quebec, reflect 400 years of colonization, colonialization, and modernization including the transformative influence of two megaprojects and many smaller-scale initiatives focused on the supply of natural resources for export. The largest two of these natural resource projects conform to Hirschman's [24] characterization of megaprojects in that they were trait making - designed to ambitiously change the structure of society - rather than the trait taking approach of smaller scale projects that seek to fit into pre-existing structures without modifying them. The first megaproject was the North American fur trade, which commenced around 1740 and initially concentrated on trading posts established along the west and east sides of Hudson Bay and James Bay (Figure 3A). The initial location of these trading posts and the three-hundred-year legacy of material and cultural exchange and exploitation that followed fundamentally changed the social and economic structure of northern Quebec societies, explored in detail in [25-28]. The second megaproject was the James Bay hydro-electric project, initiated in 1971, and the associated James Bay and Northern Quebec Agreement, signed in 1975, which introduced environmental and social impacts, impact benefit agreements, and new governance regimes that have redefined the regional organization, land protection, road access, and the natural resource economy of northern Quebec. The trajectory of hydro-electric, forestry and mining impact and development in northern Quebec has followed a south to north gradient, with much more development and impact occurring in the more southerly territory of Eeyou Istchee than the more northerly territory of Nunavik. These differing trajectories of development, occurring on top of already distinct cultural and environmental contexts, contributes to Eeyou Istchee and Nunavik being very different places that function as largely distinct societies. Furthermore, both regions are themselves composed of many distinct places and communities, with the coasts being very different from inland regions and the south being very different from the north. One change shared by all communities and both regions is population growth; since the signing of the JBNQA, the population of Nunavik has increased from 3,427 to over 12,000 and the population of Eeyou Istchee from 6,649 to 19,169.

1.2.6. Climate change

Climate change in northern Quebec over the last several decades has led to an increase in mean annual temperature, resulting in a longer snow-free and frost-free season [29]. Climate changes observed in northern Quebec include longer and hotter summers, shorter and milder winters, more frequent and less predictable extreme weather events, and increases in total precipitation coupled with a decrease in snowfall. In general, snowfalls occur later in autumn and snow melts faster in the spring. Snow has been observed to be harder to travel on and there is overall less ice on the bays, rivers, and lakes, with freeze-up occurring later and breakup earlier particularly in Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait [30]. Annual mean air temperature in Eeyou Istchee has increased by ~1.5 ºC over the past 30 years, including significant warming of 2-3 ºC during the winter months [31]. Along the east coast of James Bay, summer air temperatures and freshwater discharge have increased from 1983-2019, while summer sea surface temperature and ice breakup dates have shown high annual variability but no long-term trend [32]. In Nunavik, widespread summer warming of ~0.5 °C/decade and pronounced winter warming, up to 2.0 °C/decade over northernmost areas, have occurred during the 1987–2016 period. While total precipitation has increased, the warming appears to have contributed to a 13% decline in total solid precipitation (snow, hail, freezing rain) between 1980 and 2014. As a result, total snow precipitation has not changed significantly [29].

These trends are projected to continue and, in many cases, to accelerate during the 21st century [33]: compared to the reference period, mean annual temperature are projected to increase by 5.1 – 9.1 °C in the 2076-2100 period under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Warming in winter months is expected to exceed summer warming. In the period from 2046 to 2064, average annual precipitation could increase by 20 to 35%. Extreme precipitation could increase in the entire region by 5 mm per day for the 2046-2064 and 10 mm per day for 2076-2100, according to the RCP8.5 scenario. Even if snow precipitation is projected to increase between the December-February period, decreased snow onset and amounts in autumn will result in shorter annual snow cover duration. The snow cover period is projected to decrease by one month according to the RCP4.5, and by one to two months according to the RCP8.5 by 2046-2064. Hennigs and Bleau [31] report that current projections suggest an increase in average annual temperatures of about 3.7°C by 2050 between the 49th and 55th parallel. This region is likely to be among the regions with the highest rates of winter warming in Canada in 2050. In addition to the average temperature increase, climate change is expected to have impacts on temperature extremes, precipitation patterns (rain, snow, ice), number and duration of winter thaws, ground freezing indices, wind conditions and extreme weather conditions, among others. With projected continued increase in temperatures and precipitations, bioclimatic domains of northern Quebec will be reshaped and the northernmost polar bioclimates might be replaced by sub-polar bioclimates [33].

One of the most striking changes in terrestrial ecosystems in the Arctic is the general greening trend, which has been observed throughout the northern circumpolar region, from North America (e.g., [34]) to Eurasia (e.g., [35]). In Nunavik, climate warming is leading to permafrost degradation and the expansion of shrub and forest ecosystems ([36-38]). Repeated aerial photograph comparisons (e.g., [34]) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) remote sensing analyses (e.g., [39]) indicate this Nunavik greening trend is mainly associated with the rapid expansion of erect shrub species such as dwarf birch (Betula glandulosa Michx.). An increase in the abundance of erect shrub species can lead to changes in the abiotic environment, which in turn alters the dynamics of plant communities. In winter, for instance, erect shrubs favor greater snow accumulation and limit snow compaction, thereby influencing soil thermal regime, growing season length, soil humidity and microbial activity, even if the link between the latter and shrub abundance seems weaker than previously thought [40]. Experimental studies showed that an increase in shrub cover resulted in a decrease in understory plant species richness (e.g., [41]) and cover (e.g., [42]). On the other hand, forbs and graminoids were positively correlated with shrub cover in other studies ([43, 44]), a phenomenon likely associated with their higher tolerance to light limitation [45].

Climate change will also have a major impact on lakes and rivers in northern Quebec. Lakes situated 50°N and above will be particularly impacted [46]. Climate simulations show that an increase in air temperature will lead to increased water temperature, especially in the upper 10 m and in early summer [47]. Shallow lakes may therefore become unsuitable for cold-adapted fishes during the 21st century, whereas large deep lakes may serve as climate refugia for these species [47]. In northern Quebec, lakes situated at lower elevations tend to be deeper than lakes situated at higher elevations, particularly shallow, high elevation lakes located in the Torngats and Puvurnituk Mountains [46]. Based on a recent unpublished study, entitled Portrait climatique régional en climat de référence et futur en soutien à l’analyse des impacts et de l’adaptation aux changements climatiques sur le territoire Eeyou lstchee Baie-James, du nord de l’Abitibi-Témiscamingue et du Nunavik, river annual mean flows is projected to probably increase in Eeyou lstchee and Nunavik regions (Stéphanie Bleau pers. comm.).

Northern Quebec coastlines are also being impacted by climate change, including changes in relative water level, storm surges, waves, and ice conditions [48]. For most parts of Nunavik, the effects of isostatic uplift are expected to exceed the impacts of higher global sea levels leading to a decrease in maximum water height and frequency of extremely high water levels. Accordingly, beach formation and anticipated damages are expected to result from low water levels. Sea ice is expected to form later in the autumn and melt earlier in the spring, leading to a partial ice cover period that is six weeks longer by the 2040-2070 period, and two months longer by 2070- 2100. The increased mobility of the ice could lead to a higher probability of ice-related erosion. By 2040-2070, the ice is expected to be 15 cm thinner in November and 80 cm thinner in June. The thinner ice cover could break if strong winds and higher water levels occur simultaneously. The longer open-water period and higher average sea level contribute to the formation of higher and stronger waves during storms. As a result, in Nunavik, the shortening of the sea ice season by around 40 days will increase the total energy of waves created by storms that reach the shore.

Human-induced climate change, including more frequent and intense extreme events, has caused widespread adverse impacts and related losses and damages to nature and people, beyond natural climate variability [49]. Interactions among the coupled systems of climate, ecosystems (including their biodiversity) and human society form the basis of emerging risks from climate change, ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss; across sectors and regions the most vulnerable people and systems are observed to be disproportionately affected [49]. Global climate change, including increased frequency of weather and climate extremes, has exposed millions of people to acute food insecurity and reduced water security, with the largest impacts observed in many locations and/or communities in Africa, Asia, Central and South America, Small Islands and the Arctic [50]. Sudden losses of food production and access to food, compounded by decreased diet diversity, have reduced food security and increased malnutrition in many communities, especially for Indigenous Peoples, small-scale food producers and low-income households, with children, elderly people and pregnant women particularly impacted [50]. Climate variability and change contribute to food insecurity, which can lead to malnutrition, including undernutrition, overweight, obesity [51]. People with climate-sensitive livelihoods and precarious livelihood conditions are most at risk [52].

Interactions among the coupled systems climate, ecosystems (including their biodiversity) and human society also offer opportunities for the future [52]. Human society can adapt to, maladapt and mitigate climate change. Ecosystems too can adapt and mitigate within limits. Human society impacts ecosystems but can also contribute to their restoration and conservation. Some development and adaptation efforts have reduced vulnerability [52]. Climate resilient development and improved human, ecosystem and planetary health requires society and ecosystems to transition to a more resilient state. Better understanding of climate risks can strengthen adaptation and mitigation actions and transitions that reduce risks. Taking action is enabled by governance, finance, knowledge and capacity building, technology and catalysing conditions. Enabling environments that support sustainable development are essential for adaptation and climate resilient development [52]. Equitable, inclusive and participatory approaches that integrate climate impact projections into near term and long-term decision-making reduce future risks. Near- and long-term adaptation planning, implementation, and coordination across sectors and jurisdictions supports equitable and effective climate solutions [53].

Transformational changes for health and well-being will be more effective if they are responsive to regional, local, and Indigenous Knowledge, and consider the many dimensions of vulnerability, including those that are gender- and age-specific [51]. Supporting Indigenous self-determination, recognizing Indigenous Peoples’ rights, and supporting Indigenous knowledge based-adaptation are critical to reducing climate change risks to achieve adaptation success [53]. Equitable, inclusive and participatory approaches that integrate climate impact projections into near term and long-term decision-making reduce future risks.

In the following section 1.3, we describe how environmental health, social-ecological systems and social determinants of health act as bridges between all components impacted by climate change (Figure 4) and we present features composing the local food system value chain (Figure 8 in section 1.5) necessary to document and understand traditional and non-traditional food systems vulnerability to the observed and expected changes. This knowledge will allow identifying and implementing adaptation solutions to mitigate the expected impacts of climate change on local Indigenous food systems (section 3.6).

References on this page